Situational Awareness LP — Leopold Aschenbrenner

AI Infrastructure Hedge Fund Tracker

Last Updated: March 22, 2026 | Based on Q4 2025 13F filing (as of 12/31/2025)

📌 Fund Overview

Detail	Value
Fund	Situational Awareness LP
Manager	Leopold Aschenbrenner (co-managed w/ Carl Shulman)
HQ	San Francisco, CA
AUM (13F)	$5.52 billion (up from $4.14B in Q3 2025)
Holdings	~29 positions
Top 10 Concentration	85.96%
Strategy	Long/short equity, macro overlay, heavily options-based
2025 H1 Performance	+47% net (vs S&P +6%)
Key LPs	Patrick & John Collison (Stripe), Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, institutions, endowments, family offices
Personal Stake	Aschenbrenner has invested "almost all" personal net worth

🧠 Core Thesis (from "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead")

Aschenbrenner's 165-page essay (June 2024) argues: 1. AGI by ~2027 — LLM scaling curves show exponential capability growth with compute/data. By 2025/26, AI will outpace many college graduates; by 2027-2028, approaching superintelligence. 2. The bottleneck isn't algorithms — it's power and compute. The most valuable assets in the AI era will be electricity generation and computing infrastructure, not the model builders themselves. 3. Massive capex cycle — Trillions will be spent on compute clusters, data centers, power plants, and chips. The fund bets on enablers, not the AI labs. 4. Geopolitical stakes — The U.S.-China AI race makes this a national security priority, likely to accelerate government investment. 5. Crypto miners as AI pivots — Bitcoin mining operations own power infrastructure and high-density compute facilities that can be repurposed for AI workloads. This re-rating opportunity is a key trade. 6. COVID parallel — Just as few understood exponential pandemic spread in early 2020, few understand the exponential AI trajectory now. First movers capture historic gains.

📊 Latest 13F Holdings (Q4 2025, filed 02/11/2026)

Top Positions by Size

#	Ticker	Company	Position Size ($K)	Shares/Contracts	Change vs Q3	Category
1	CRWV	CoreWeave Inc	$1,211,162	6,098,812 shares + 10.8M calls	+8.5M calls, +1.98M shares	AI Cloud Infrastructure
2	BE	Bloom Energy Corp	$911,001	10,076,022 shares + 408.5K calls	NEW (entire position)	Fuel-Cell Power
3	INTC	Intel Corp	$746,760	20,237,400 calls	UNCH	Semiconductors
4	LITE	Lumentum Holdings	$478,577	1,298,400 shares	+880,800	Optical/Photonics
5	CORZ	Core Scientific	$418,694	28,756,478 shares	+8,575,944	Crypto→AI Data Centers
6	IREN	IREN Limited	$328,622	8,700,621 shares	+1,480,200	Crypto→AI Compute
7	APLD	Applied Digital Corp	$278,034	11,339,060 shares	+5,274,905	Data Center Infrastructure
8	SNDK	SanDisk Corp	$250,246	1,054,200 shares	+939,200	Storage/Memory
9	CIFR	Cipher Mining Inc	$154,524	10,469,093 shares	+4,728,600	Crypto Mining/AI Pivot
10	EQT	EQT Corp	$170,567	2,482,225 shares + 700K calls	+1,264,839 shares	Natural Gas/Power

Remaining Positions

Ticker	Company	Position ($K)	Shares	Change	Category
COHR	Coherent Corp	$88,649	480,300	+325,900	Optical Components
SEI	Solaris Energy Infra	$85,803	1,866,500	+716,200	Energy Infrastructure
TSEM	Tower Semiconductor	$84,895	723,004	+252,404	Foundry/Semis
RIOT	Riot Platforms	$78,145	6,167,700	+2,575,001	Crypto Mining
KRC	Kilroy Realty Corp	$49,616	1,327,700	NEW	Data Center REIT
HUT	Hut 8 Corp	$39,518	860,200	+261,200	Crypto Mining
WYFI	WhiteFiber Inc	$27,770	1,757,600	NEW	AI Compute
PSIX	Power Solutions Intl	$24,702	432,300	NEW	Power Generation
BTDR	Bitdeer Technologies	$20,043	1,788,000	+858,400	Crypto Mining/ASIC
CLSK	CleanSpark Inc	$16,601	1,640,400	NEW	Crypto Mining
BITF	Bitfarms Ltd	$16,208	6,897,100	NEW	Crypto Mining
LBRT	Liberty Energy Inc	$10,471	567,200	NEW	Oilfield Services/Power
PUMP	ProPetro Holding	$8,657	910,300	NEW	Oilfield Services
BW	Babcock & Wilcox	$8,584	1,353,900	NEW	Power/Industrial

🏗️ Portfolio Architecture — Five Thematic Baskets

1. ⚡ POWER GENERATION & ELECTRICITY (~28% of portfolio)

The fund's single biggest conviction — AGI needs massive power

Ticker	Thesis
BE (Bloom Energy)	Largest single position. Fuel cells for on-site, clean, reliable data center power. Avoids grid bottleneck.
EQT	Largest U.S. natural gas producer. Gas is the bridge fuel for data center power demand.
SEI (Solaris Energy)	Energy infrastructure for distributed power generation.
PSIX (Power Solutions Intl)	Power generation equipment — engines, generators for backup/primary data center power.
LBRT (Liberty Energy)	Oilfield services with power-generation capabilities.
PUMP (ProPetro)	Fracking/power services — energy supply chain exposure.
BW (Babcock & Wilcox)	Industrial power and environmental equipment.

2. 🖥️ AI CLOUD & COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE (~35% of portfolio)

The direct picks-and-shovels plays on AI compute

Ticker	Thesis
CRWV (CoreWeave)	Second largest position. Purpose-built AI cloud provider. Direct exposure to GPU-as-a-service for training/inference.
CORZ (Core Scientific)	Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI hosting. Massive power contracts + data center facilities.
IREN	Australian crypto miner with GPU compute pivot. Low-cost renewable energy.
APLD (Applied Digital)	Data center infrastructure designed for AI workloads.
WYFI (WhiteFiber)	New position — AI compute fiber/connectivity infrastructure.
KRC (Kilroy Realty)	New position — REIT with data center real estate exposure.

3. ⛏️ CRYPTO MINERS → AI PIVOT (~7% of portfolio)

Repurposing Bitcoin infrastructure for AI — the "re-rating" trade

Ticker	Thesis
CIFR (Cipher Mining)	Mining operations pivoting to AI colocation/hosting.
RIOT (Riot Platforms)	One of largest Bitcoin miners; massive power access.
HUT (Hut 8)	Canadian miner diversifying into AI compute.
BTDR (Bitdeer)	ASIC manufacturer + mining — vertical integration.
CLSK (CleanSpark)	Bitcoin miner with low-cost energy contracts.
BITF (Bitfarms)	New position — mining with potential AI hosting upside.

4. 🔧 SEMICONDUCTORS & OPTICS (~23% of portfolio)

Chip design, foundry, and optical networking for AI clusters

Ticker	Thesis
INTC (Intel)	Massive call options position. Bet on turnaround + foundry strategy for AI chips.
LITE (Lumentum)	Optical components for data center interconnects. Critical for cluster networking.
SNDK (SanDisk)	Storage/memory — AI needs massive data storage capacity.
COHR (Coherent)	Optical transceivers and laser components for AI networking.
TSEM (Tower Semi)	Specialty foundry for analog/mixed-signal chips used in power management.

5. 🔌 NETWORKING & CONNECTIVITY (~4% of portfolio)

Bandwidth and low-latency links between GPU clusters

Ticker	Thesis
WYFI (WhiteFiber)	AI-optimized fiber connectivity.

📈 Portfolio Evolution: Q3 → Q4 2025

Key Changes:

AUM grew 33% from $4.14B → $5.52B in one quarter

Bloom Energy became the #1 position (entirely new)

CoreWeave calls surged massively (+8.5M contracts)

Crypto miners expanded significantly across the board

7 new positions added (mostly power and mining)

Concentration remains extreme: top 3 = ~52% of portfolio

Heavy use of call options for leverage (Intel, CoreWeave, Bloom, EQT)

💡 Investment Implications for Your Portfolio

High-Conviction Trades to Consider

Tier 1 — Highest conviction (Aschenbrenner's largest bets):

CoreWeave (CRWV) — Purest AI infrastructure play. High-risk/high-reward. If AI compute demand continues, this is the direct beneficiary.

Bloom Energy (BE) — On-site clean power for data centers. Solves the grid bottleneck. New massive position signals strong conviction.

Intel (INTC) — Contrarian bet on turnaround. Calls-only = leveraged upside if foundry strategy works. Cheap entry vs peers.

Tier 2 — Strong thematic conviction:

Lumentum (LITE) — Optical networking is a genuine bottleneck for AI clusters. Less crowded than chip plays.

Core Scientific (CORZ) — Crypto-to-AI pivot at scale. Power contracts are the real asset.

EQT Corp — Natural gas demand from data centers is a secular trend, not just a commodity trade.

Tier 3 — Speculative/high-beta:

Crypto miners cluster (CIFR, RIOT, HUT, CLSK, BITF) — These are leveraged bets on the "infrastructure re-rating" thesis. If the AI pivot narrative fails, these could underperform.

Small power plays (PSIX, LBRT, PUMP, BW) — Smaller positions, may be tactical or options-based.

Key Risks to Monitor

1. AGI timeline slippage — If scaling laws break or AGI is delayed, the capex cycle slows dramatically. The entire thesis depends on continued exponential AI improvement. 2. Extreme concentration — 86% in top 10. If 2-3 positions go wrong, the fund gets hit hard. Same risk if you mirror too closely. 3. Options leverage — Heavy use of calls means the fund has massive convexity but also time decay. Positions can move violently. 4. Crypto miner pivot risk — The "re-rate from mining to AI hosting" thesis is unproven at scale. Many miners may not successfully transition. 5. Short positions hidden — 13F only shows longs. The fund likely has significant hedges/shorts you can't see.

Portfolio Construction Notes

Don't copy blindly — 13F data is delayed ~45 days. Positions may have changed.

Hedge ratio unknown — The fund is long/short. Without knowing shorts and derivatives overlays, you're only seeing half the picture.

Consider ETF alternatives — If you want broad exposure to the thesis without single-stock risk, consider AI infrastructure ETFs alongside cherry-picked individual positions.

Power > Chips — Aschenbrenner's highest-conviction trade is power generation, not semiconductors. The portfolio has shifted significantly toward energy over time.

📚 Source Material

Thesis: "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" (Leopold Aschenbrenner, June 2024)

- situational-awareness.ai

13F Filing: SEC filing for Situational Awareness LP, CIK 0002045724

- Filed: 02/11/2026, Reporting Period: 12/31/2025 - SEC EDGAR

Fund Profile: HoldingsChannel

Fund Coverage: Fortune (Oct 2025, Mar 2026)

⚠️ This is an informational tracker, not financial advice. 13F data is ~45 days delayed. The fund's actual positions may differ. Always do your own research.